Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data

Aggregate financial conditions indices (FCIs) are constructed to fulfil two aims: (i) The FCIs should resemble non-model-based composite indices in that their composition is adequately invariant for concatenation during regular updates; (ii) the concatenated FCIs should outperform financial variables conventionally used as leading indicators in macro models. Both aims are shown to be attainable once an algorithmic modelling route is adopted to combine leading indicator modelling with the principles of partial least-squares (PLS) modelling, supervised dimensionality reduction, and backward dynamic selection. Pilot results using US data confirm the traditional wisdom that financial imbalances are more likely to induce macro impacts than routine market volatilities. They also shed light on why the popular route of principal-component based factor analysis is ill-suited for the two aims

Unpublished Mediterranean and Black Sea records of marine alien, cryptogenic, and neonative species

To enrich spatio-temporal information on the distribution of alien, cryptogenic, and neonative species in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, a collective effort by 173 marine scientists was made to provide unpublished records and make them open access to the scientific community. Through this effort, we collected and harmonized a dataset of 12,649 records. It includes 247 taxa, of which 217 are Animalia, 25 Plantae and 5 Chromista, from 23 countries surrounding the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Chordata was the most abundant taxonomic group, followed by Arthropoda, Mollusca, and Annelida. In terms of species records, Siganus luridus, Siganus rivulatus, Saurida lessepsianus, Pterois miles, Upeneus moluccensis, Charybdis (Archias) longicollis, and Caulerpa cylindracea were the most numerous. The temporal distribution of the records ranges from 1973 to 2022, with 44% of the records in 2020–2021. Lethrinus borbonicus is reported for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea, while Pomatoschistus quagga, Caulerpa cylindracea, Grateloupia turuturu, and Misophria pallida are first records for the Black Sea; Kapraunia schneideri is recorded for the second time in the Mediterranean and for the first time in Israel; Prionospio depauperata and Pseudonereis anomala are reported for the first time from the Sea of Marmara. Many first country records are also included, namely: Amathia verticillata (Montenegro), Ampithoe valida (Italy), Antithamnion amphigeneum (Greece), Clavelina oblonga (Tunisia and Slovenia), Dendostrea cf. folium (Syria), Epinephelus fasciatus (Tunisia), Ganonema farinosum (Montenegro), Macrorhynchia philippina (Tunisia), Marenzelleria neglecta (Romania), Paratapes textilis (Tunisia), and Botrylloides diegensis (Tunisia).peer-reviewe

Unpublished Mediterranean and Black Sea records of marine alien, cryptogenic, and neonative species

To enrich spatio-temporal information on the distribution of alien, cryptogenic, and neonative species in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, a collective effort by 173 marine scientists was made to provide unpublished records and make them open access to the scientific community. Through this effort, we collected and harmonized a dataset of 12,649 records. It includes 247 taxa, of which 217 are Animalia, 25 Plantae and 5 Chromista, from 23 countries surrounding the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Chordata was the most abundant taxonomic group, followed by Arthropoda, Mollusca, and Annelida. In terms of species records, Siganus luridus, Siganus rivulatus, Saurida lessepsianus, Pterois miles, Upeneus moluccensis, Charybdis (Archias) longicollis, and Caulerpa cylindracea were the most numerous. The temporal distribution of the records ranges from 1973 to 2022, with 44% of the records in 2020–2021. Lethrinus borbonicus is reported for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea, while Pomatoschistus quagga, Caulerpa cylindracea, Grateloupia turuturu, and Misophria pallida are first records for the Black Sea; Kapraunia schneideri is recorded for the second time in the Mediterranean and for the first time in Israel; Prionospio depauperata and Pseudonereis anomala are reported for the first time from the Sea of Marmara. Many first country records are also included, namely: Amathia verticillata (Montenegro), Ampithoe valida (Italy), Antithamnion amphigeneum (Greece), Clavelina oblonga (Tunisia and Slovenia), Dendostrea cf. folium (Syria), Epinephelus fasciatus (Tunisia), Ganonema farinosum (Montenegro), Macrorhynchia philippina (Tunisia), Marenzelleria neglecta (Romania), Paratapes textilis (Tunisia), and Botrylloides diegensis (Tunisia)